June
21

Julia Hansen, Professor of Economics at Western Washington University, gave a presentation to the Building Industry Association of Whatcom County (BIAWC) last month. She spoke to the group about the local housing and construction market, looking at key metrics such as recent permit activity, median home price and sales.

In her presentation, Julia identified the following current/near-term risks for Bellingham and Whatcom County:

  • Expiration of homebuyer tax credits
  • Mortgage rates rising by year-end
  • Increasing delinquencies and foreclosures in Whatcom County
  • Price pressure from “shadow inventory”
  • Continued slowdown of internal migration in the U.S. (due in part to “underwater” homeowners
  • Potential for weak macroeconomic recovery

But, not to leave things on a sour note, Julia wrapped up her talk with a look at some of the local positive factors for the short term:

  • Local employment growth is coming — the state gained jobs in Jan and March
  • WA State recovery is expected to outpace the national recovery
  • Canadian dollar is strong
  • Our border is with Canada, not Greece!

Julia’s presentation includes loads more useful data and information on the local housing market. Click here to download the PowerPoint version in its entirety.

August
20

When looking for insights on the local economy, one resource I typically turn to is Hart Hodges. Hart is a good friend of mine, and he is also the Director of Western Washington University’s Center for Economic and Business Research.

Hart recently shared some notes on the local job market with me, and I thought I would post some of those insights here on our CBMA blog. So, here’s Hart:

Whatcom Co. Job Market – Signs that we’re near the bottom?

The job market has – quite obviously – weakened over the past year. In both Whatcom County and the state as a whole, there were 4.6% fewer jobs in June 2009 compared to the peak of the market in spring 2008.

The following graph shows employment levels (nonfarm jobs) in Washington State and Whatcom County from January 2000 through June 2009.

WA State and Whatcom County Employment - Jan 02 to June 09

While the employment graph shows similar percentage declines in the number of jobs from 2008 through June 2009 in Whatcom County and Washington State – one can note two differences. The first is how Whatcom County “missed” the recession of 2001, with its jobless recovery. The decline and slow recovery experienced in many places is clearly evident in the series for Washington. The other difference is simply that Whatcom County saw job growth in June 2009.

The increase in the number of jobs in Whatcom County in June could be a sign that we’re near the bottom of the recession. But again, look carefully at the Washington State series. The recovery from the 2008/09 recession could be as slow or slower. Note: the time it has taken the job market to recover after a recession has gotten longer with each recession since 1983.

You might be interested in the labor area summaries prepared by the Employment Security labor economists. You can access the summaries here.