Pending & Closed Sales Up Over 2008, Median Price Drops

Pending sales for November tapered off from the October surge, but Whatcom County experienced a 25 percent increase from the same period in 2008.

Closed residential sales increased dramatically from November, 2008. Closed sales were up 88 percent, due in part by lower interest rates and first time homebuyer tax credit. The other reason for such a dramatic increase is the tremendous slowdown that occurred last year at this time.

The median sales price is down about 7.6% in November (over November 2008), and down 7.1% year to date.

Inventory Almost at Balanced Market Levels

Overall residential inventory has decreased by 9% year-to-date. November, 2009 vs. November, 2008 numbers are even. For the month of November, months of inventory was at 7.5 months, as compared to November, 2008 when it was 16.5 months. Six months of inventory is considered a balanced market.

Average cumulative days on the market for November, 2009 is 157 days, which compares to only 126 days on the market in November, 2008. The list to sale ratio is at 89% for November, 2009, compared to 91% in November, 2008.

Finally, the absorption rate for residential sales for November was 13.3%. It was 6.1% for the same period in 2008. The absorption rate indicates how many homes are being sold as compared to the number of listings currently on the market. Since November of 2008, that rate has steadily increased.

Holidays can be a favorable time to sell

Buyers tend to encounter less competition for the most desirable homes during these winter months. Also, qualified buyers can expect above-normal attention from service providers who are experiencing a slowdown in their business, including lenders, inspectors, appraisers and title companies.

Agents are able to devote more time to clients and the smaller selection of homes on the market. Sellers can also benefit from showcasing their homes with tasteful holiday decorations, although home stagers caution them to show restraint and not overdo the décor.

As of this writing, the homebuyer tax credit has been extended to April 30, 2010. You can read more about this here, in a previous article on our blog.

Pending Sales Up

In Whatcom County, pending sales increased nearly 75% in October compared to the same month a year ago. In Bellingham, pending sales increased 63% for October. Lynden was up 63%, Ferndale increased 105%, and Blaine/Birch Bay increased 67%, while Sudden Valley was up 39%.

The new figures show continued signs of some stability in the market and improving consumer confidence. Inventory levels are down about 10% and Whatcom County added about 313 residential new listings in October: about the same as one year ago.

Median Prices Down

The median price for October was $260,000. And, if you add condominium sales, the median price is $251,000. Overall value decreased 7.1% and 5% respectively.

Majority of Activity Under $350K

For the month of October, 80% of residential sales were under $350,000, versus only 71% a year ago. The upper-end market accounted for about 9% of the sales over $500,000 in October, as opposed to 7.7%  in October, 2008.

Interest Rates Remain Low

The weekly average interest rate borrowers were quoted for 30 – year fixed mortgages at 4.87 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed mortgage were 4.31 percent.

Delinquencies on single-family homes continued to rise at the two big government-sponsored  mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, indicating that problems have yet to level off.

West up; Northeast and Midwest down
According to the NAR, July pending home sales across the country were 12.7 percent higher than the same period in 2008, and they were also at their highest point since June 2007. Regionally, this trend is being buoyed by pending home sales in the West (up 12.1% from June, and 20% above this time last year), as pending home sale numbers in the Northeast and Midwest saw month-over-month decreases.

Tax credit motivating first-time homebuyers
As the article points out, a significant contributor to this trend is the high number of first-time home buyers who are entering the market to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit available to them. As this deadline looms, that could have an impact on the high number of pending home sales we’re now seeing.

Future sales indicator
Pending home sales are often used as an indicator of future home sales. While all pending home sales may not close, this index is generally seen as a reliable indicator of housing market activity. More pending home sales means more buyers are in the process of closing on a home, so this is certainly encouraging news.

Inman News, a great resource I use regularly, also reported on this trend. You can read their article here.

Local stats should be in soon. So stay tuned to find out if this trend is occuring here locally as well.