Whatcom County brokers reported 283 pending sales during the month of April, representing an increase of more than 70% from the same month a year ago. MLS figures show local home inventory has increased 14.3% during this same period, closed sales jumped by almost 15%, and median sales prices dropped nearly 4%.

Homes For Sale Vs. Sold Vs. Pending Vs. New Listing

The following graph compares the number of homes for sale vs. the number of homes sold vs. the number of pending sales vs. the number of new listings, between Feb of 2009 and April of 2010 (click to enlarge).

The Homebuyer Tax Credit Impact

The homebuyer tax credit did what it was designed to do: it helped with stabilizing the housing market, which in turn helped stimulate the economy. You can see how the number of pending home sales rose consistently leading up to the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, in the graph above.

However, the market remains bifurcated, with the lower end (under $300,000) selling and the high end (over $500,000) struggling. Price is incredibly important, especially when it comes to high-end homes.

There are two types of homes on today’s market: 1) Well-priced homes in good condition that are selling within 60 days, and 2) Over-priced homes that will be sitting on the market a long time.

Moving Forward

Moving forward, local home buyers will continue to experience a purchase power advantage thanks to historically low interest rates and lower adjusted home prices.

2010 So Far

Lastly, here’s a table that summarizes a plethora of local housing statistics for the first four months of this year:

*All reports are published May 2010, based on data available at the end of April 2010. This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the NWMLS. Neither the Board or its MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Board or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Report reflects activity by all brokers participated in the MLS.

Brokers reported activity at levels we haven’t seen in a while.  Notably, while entry-level home sales have been driving the market, brokers also reported strong activity at the upper end of the price spectrum.

For the first quarter of 2010 Whatcom County also experienced a rise in inventory levels as well as a positive increase in pending and closed sales. However, the median price continued to drop due to the shift of buyers to the more affordable priced homes.  For the quarter prices were down about 8% throughout Whatcom County.

Pending sales of used residential homes were the strongest in Lynden (up 50%) and Blaine/Birch Bay (up 39%). Overall the county was up 13% from the first quarter of 2009. Closed used single family sales were up 27% in the first quarter of 2010 over the the same period in 2009. Ferndale, Blaine/Birch Bay and Lynden respectively increased the most. 68%, 32% and 25% respectively.

Median prices were down 13% in Bellingham, down 3.5% in Ferndale, up 6.5% in Blaine/Birch Bay, down 4.5% in Lynden and down 10% in Sudden Valley.

The surge, in sales, in Whatcom County is thanks to the opportunities that have been afforded to homeowners through the federal tax credit, low interest rates and increased affordability. We have seen a dramatic shift of median prices since 2007. In the first quarter of 2007 58% of the sales were under $300,000 in Whatcom County. In the first quarter of 2010 the percentage was 75. Ferndale had the largest increase from 48% in 2007 to 78% in 2010.

Looking at the local real estate numbers for the month of June, I’ve noticed some pretty encouraging trends. Here’s what stood out to me:

Fewer Homes Listed, More Under Contract
For starters, the year-over-year positive movement is encouraging. Compared to 12 months ago, Whatcom County has 372 fewer homes (-10.5%) listed for sale and 107 more homes (8.5%) under contract. This is an improvement that will hopefully sustain itself over the second half of the year.

Pending Sales Up, Closed Sales Down
It’s also reassuring to see that the number of pending sales are at their highest level since the credit bubble burst nearly two years ago. Year-to-date pending residential sales are up 8.5%, while closed sales are down 19%. However, the number of closed sales for 2009 are increasing in the last two months.

Tax Credit Working
All of this means the $8,000 tax credit is working: low interest rates and declining inventories have helped to reactivate buyers in the more affordable price ranges. The federal tax credit of up to $8,000 is available for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing a principal residence before December 1, 2009.

More info on this tax credit for first-time home buyers can be found here.

Median, Average Prices Down
The overall median price in Whatcom County is down 6.3% and the average price is down 10%. While the median and average sales prices for Whatcom County homes are both down, prices have flattened over the past seven to nine months.

Neighborhoods
Data shows some local neighborhoods are rebounding faster than others. It appears to be a transitional market, and accurate neighborhood information is critical for buyers and sellers.

Short Sales Are A Drag
Short sales continue to be a drag on the market, frustrating agents, buyers and sellers. Even though we have fared better than most areas of the country we still have an abundance of short sales. This is a big reason the median price is shifting down to levels equal to 2006.

Inventory Levels Down, But Balancing
Residential inventory levels are down 10.5%, but local inventory levels are trending toward a more balanced market, with sales below $350,000 showing a Seller’s Market.

For the month of June, Whatcom County monthly inventory levels were at 7.6 months (meaning it would take an average of 7.6 months to sell all of the currently available inventory). Year to date, the monthly inventory level in Whatcom County was at 12 months. Six months is considered a balanced market.

This trend varied very little throughout the individual cities in Whatcom County, with Bellingham at 5.2 months of inventory for the month of June. When we look at more expensive homes, they averaged 24 months in the county, while Bellingham was at 18 months.