I recently had the opportunity to talk with Business Editor Dave Gallagher at the Bellingham Herald about our local home buying season.

To view the complete article, please click here.

Western Washington real estate brokers are crediting the federal tax credit and its impending expiration deadline for a surge in home sales last month. Members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported a 63% jump in pending sales during October, compared to the same month a year ago. The other reason for such a surge of sales was that October, 2008, was the first month after the financial meltdown and sales dropped like a rock.

As of this writing, the homebuyer tax credit has been extended to April 30, 2010. You can read more about this here, in a previous article on our blog.

Pending Sales Up

In Whatcom County, pending sales increased nearly 75% in October compared to the same month a year ago. In Bellingham, pending sales increased 63% for October. Lynden was up 63%, Ferndale increased 105%, and Blaine/Birch Bay increased 67%, while Sudden Valley was up 39%.

The new figures show continued signs of some stability in the market and improving consumer confidence. Inventory levels are down about 10% and Whatcom County added about 313 residential new listings in October: about the same as one year ago.

Median Prices Down

The median price for October was $260,000. And, if you add condominium sales, the median price is $251,000. Overall value decreased 7.1% and 5% respectively.

Majority of Activity Under $350K

For the month of October, 80% of residential sales were under $350,000, versus only 71% a year ago. The upper-end market accounted for about 9% of the sales over $500,000 in October, as opposed to 7.7%  in October, 2008.

Interest Rates Remain Low

The weekly average interest rate borrowers were quoted for 30 – year fixed mortgages at 4.87 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed mortgage were 4.31 percent.

Delinquencies on single-family homes continued to rise at the two big government-sponsored  mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, indicating that problems have yet to level off.

The House of Representatives has voted to pass legislation extending the homebuyer tax credit until April 30, 2009.

Last night, the Senate voted 98-0 to pass the legislation. Next, the bill will head to President Obama to be signed into law.

Not Just for First-Time Homebuyers

While the bill extends the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, it also makes available a tax credit to homeowners who have lived in their current residence for at least five years.  The credit for these buyers will be capped at $6,500.

Income levels will be extended from the current limits of $75,000 for a single purchaser and $150,000 for couples to $125,000 and $225,000, respectively.  Above those limits there are diminishing credits available.

Housing interests, especially the National Association of Home Builders and the National Association of Realtors, have pushed strongly for the extension, and the Obama administration has also lobbied heavily for its passage. However, not everyone was in favor of it.

Critics of the Housing Tax Credit

Some critics have charged that the tax credit has merely moved sales that would have occurred sooner or later to an earlier date and that, when the credit finally does go away, the market will experience another severe downturn. A diametrically opposed opinion would have it that, while 1.4 million claims have been made, few sales were actually inspired by the credit (i.e. these sales would have occurred with or without the tax credit). Others have argued that the current interest rates and low housing prices are enough of an incentive without spending tax money. The extension is expected to cost an estimated $11 billion on top of the $10 billion that has been spent to date.

There have also been charges of fraud in the operation of the program. To combat this, the new law has some expanded safeguards, including a minimum age of 18 for obtaining the credit, a requirement that a settlement statement accompany the tax return claiming the credit and a prohibition on non-arms length transactions.

Another criticism of the extension has been that it ends just as the “spring market” is getting underway.  Diane Olick, writing for CNBC’s RealtyCheck, said it “is sort of like offering cheap snow boots in July.”

Robert E. Story, Jr., CMB, Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), today issued the following statement in response to the passage in the U.S. Congress of legislation to extend and expand the homebuyer tax credit:

“At a time when we are finally starting to see some signs of life in the housing and mortgage markets, extending and expanding the homebuyer tax credit is a critical step to keeping the momentum. This has been one of MBA’s top single-family legislative priorities, and we are very glad to see that policymakers on both sides of the aisle see the importance of this measure.

“The existing credit for first-time homebuyers has helped move a segment of potential homebuyers off the sidelines and into their first homes.  By expanding it to qualified existing homeowners, we can help stimulate even more home purchases for qualified buyers.  I also want to applaud measures in the bill that will help eliminate fraudulent use of the tax credit.”

The Homebuyer Tax Credit is Net Positive, But Not the Universal Solution

Following a 98-0 vote in the Senate, the House of Representatives has overwhelmingly agreed to pass legislation extending the home buyer tax credit until April 30, 2009. Next the bill will head to the desk of President Obama to be signed into law.

No one argues the extension of the tax credit has value to the marketplace. But what other immediate steps must be taken — either by government or industry — to create a sustained housing recovery?

It is universally expected that interest rates will rise next year when the Fed is expected to stop purchasing MBS next year. How high, how quickly is a matter for debate.

What is not debatable is the negative impact of higher rates and an ever shrinking credit box. The extension of the Homebuyer Tax Credit will serve to soften these blows. However, a sustained recovery in the housing market must have two key components

1) Stable Employment
2) Access to Credit

In the absence of either of these components, the single shot tax credit will have limited impact. The tax credit is positive, but it’s not a universal solution.